As Q3 volatility unfolds, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioning itself for a pivotal move that could define the tone for the next 30–45 days. After consolidating within a macro range for the past several weeks, price action, structure, and volume now suggest a high-probability directional breakout. This report presents a detailed monthly trade setup with complete analysis for swing-futures traders.
BTCUSDT – LONG
Entry Zone: $61,000 – $62,500
Stop Loss: $58,800
Take Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: $66,500
🎯 TP2: $70,200
🎯 TP3: $73,500
Risk Reward: 1:2.3 to 1:4
Confidence Level: HIGH ✅
🔍 Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis :
🔹 Trend Structure (1D – 3D)
Market Structure: Higher Highs & Higher Lows since mid-June
BTC is currently forming a bullish ascending triangle on the 1D timeframe, with horizontal resistance near $63,500
3D chart shows a clean breakout from macro downtrend (April–June) and now retesting the previous breakout zone as support
🔹 Volume Analysis
Volume breakout confirmed in early July with strong buyer absorption
Accumulation volume holding steady at higher lows
No signs of distribution — this favors trend continuation
🔹 MA & Momentum Confirmation
Price has reclaimed and held above EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200 on daily chart
EMA20 is sloping upward, acting as dynamic support
RSI on daily = 59–62 range → Healthy bullish momentum without overbought conditions
MACD on 3D chart shows bullish crossover continuation with expanding histogram
🔹 Key Support & Resistance Zones
Support Zone: $60,800 – $58,800 (historical demand + EMA confluence)
Breakout Resistance: $63,500 – $64,800
Final Resistance Levels: $70K (psychological) → $73.5K (Fib extension + macro supply)
📆 Estimated Duration: 2 – 4 Weeks
This is a swing-to-position setup, with potential for staggered profit-taking or position scaling.
📈 If Take Profits Are Hit:
Market likely enters full bullish expansion phase, targeting $76K–$80K
Re-entry opportunities expected near $66.5K retest if price consolidates after breakout
Monitor RSI divergence and volume slowdown to time exits and reloads
📉 If Stop Loss Is Triggered:
Watch for price stability near $56.5K – $55K, which aligns with macro support and a monthly demand zone
Re-entry possible on bullish engulfing or double bottom confirmation from lower timeframes (4H / Daily)
🧠 Strategic Considerations
Use tiered profit targets: scale out partially at TP1 and TP2 to lock in gains, trail stop for TP3
Avoid over-leverage: 3x–5x max recommended due to multi-week volatility
Track correlation with macro factors: DXY (USD Index), ETH momentum, and S&P500 behavior
✅ Conclusion
Bitcoin is building for a major breakout, supported by multi-timeframe alignment, bullish market structure, and strong volume signatures. As long as price holds above $58.8K, bulls are in control.
This is a high-conviction monthly swing trade with strong upside potential and a clearly defined risk profile. Stay disciplined, manage size, and let the structure lead the strategy.